More to chew on...
Abrazos
Azril

War with China?
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T125db412-d466-42ad-8a91-725b32bb0e01/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
It's already on the way
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T1383ba2f-6f18-4ddd-9517-03e97bef5e7e/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>

by Michael Klare

Image of the Chinese military courtesy of Greg Walters/Flickr.

*[**Rabbi Lerner's note: You can read this article on our newly designed
website at https://www.tikkun.org/newsite/war-with-china
<https://www.tikkun.org/newsite/war-with-china>. This important article has
an introduction by Tom Engelhardt, editor of TomDispatch.com
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T67d9fb02-a0fa-4f75-b69d-654069868a9e/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>,
our media ally which published Michael Klare's article originally on
Feb.17, 2019. Send feedback to me: rabbilerner.tikkun@...
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T6d96760c-2cee-4eef-b403-93f32c304cf0/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>.]*

These days, the trade "war" between the Trump administration and China is
regularly in the headlines
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T44932c5a-9eca-4f05-abe6-84cffbaa319e/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
and,
sometimes, so are the bases the Chinese are building
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T2bab3e97-7f62-45de-a5d5-12d22f088585/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
in
the South China Sea, the ships the U.S. Navy is sending
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T72df3cf5-c3ed-42ee-8a0b-f0e8b2e982a5/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
ever
more provocatively close
<https://default.salsalabs.org/Tffa2878f-22aa-4e4b-a699-373b6cd89423/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
to
them, and the potential clashes that might result. But the global nature of
the growing conflict between Washington and Beijing has yet to be fully
taken in. As it happens, at this moment, it extends from Greenland (I'm
serious!) to Argentina (I'm serious again!). In Greenland, still a
self-ruling part of Denmark, a panicked U.S. military and Trump
administration recently turned back a Chinese plan to help bankroll and
build three airports. In fact, the Pentagon itself actually offered to
invest in Greenland's airport infrastructure. Otherwise, military officials
feared, China might secure an economic foothold at the far end of what that
self-proclaimed
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T2ab82f2b-977a-4cdc-bf6f-e848c95b347c/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
"Near-Arctic
State" has dubbed its future "Polar Silk Road" or "blue economic passage"
across the melting north. And far worse, as the *Wall Street Journal* put it
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T2dbfa96e-170c-4cbc-9d91-5f2fbdf6b8dc/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
(undoubtedly
reflecting the fears of Pentagon officials), China could have ended up with
"a military foothold off Canada's coast" -- that is, the sort of military
base that the U.S. already has in Greenland
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T21ccb916-529a-43f1-8597-aebb5bb5f3e1/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>,
the northernmost of its 800
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T08dad697-6727-4675-becf-daf544015d0f/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
or
so bases across the planet.

Meanwhile, at the southern tip of the same planet, in Argentina's desolate
Patagonian desert, the Chinese have built
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T32f4cdc8-4456-4661-8d60-444dd5207ee8/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
a
deep-space tracking station with a big-dish radar for "peaceful research."
It is, however, run by that country's military and U.S. military officials
are already in a dither about the dangers it might someday pose to
America's array of satellites. (That the U.S. has similar radar equipment
dotted across much of the Earth is undoubtedly just more evidence of what
the Chinese might, in the future, want to do.)

Think of these Chinese forays at the planet's antipodes, one aborted, one
successful, and the hypersensitive Washington response to each of them as
signs of a genuinely rising power and also of the heightening of potential
conflicts between it and the still reigning superpower. I'm talking, of
course, about the previously "exceptional" and "indispensable" country that
Donald Trump swears he'll make "great again." In the process, as
*TomDispatch* regular
<https://default.salsalabs.org/Tc42381d3-aea6-48dc-a8cc-13dfc88ca479/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>Michael
Klare makes strikingly clear today, both countries are plunging into what
can only be thought of as a new kind of war that could prove hot indeed
before it's over.  –– *Tom*


In his highly acclaimed 2017 book, *Destined for War*
<https://default.salsalabs.org/Tbd99a960-5769-4e4e-8a89-591822a19c37/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>,
Harvard professor Graham Allison assessed the likelihood that the United
States and China would one day find themselves at war. Comparing the
U.S.-Chinese relationship to great-power rivalries all the way back to the
Peloponnesian War of the fifth century BC, he concluded that the future
risk of a conflagration was substantial. Like much current analysis of
U.S.-Chinese relations, however, he missed a crucial point: for all intents
and purposes, the United States and China are already at war with one
another. Even if their present slow-burn conflict may not produce the
immediate devastation of a conventional hot war, its long-term consequences
could prove no less dire.

To suggest this means reassessing our understanding of what constitutes
war. From Allison's perspective (and that of so many others in Washington
and elsewhere), "peace" and "war" stand as polar opposites. One day, our
soldiers are in their garrisons being trained and cleaning their weapons;
the next, they are called into action and sent onto a battlefield. War, in
this model, begins when the first shots are fired.

Well, think again in this new era of growing great-power struggle and
competition. Today, war means so much more than military combat and can
take place even as the leaders of the warring powers meet to negotiate and
share
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T26d66883-826d-468e-81f4-a25d67b62b25/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
dry-aged
steak and whipped potatoes (as Donald Trump and Xi Jinping did at
Mar-a-Lago in 2017). That is exactly where we are when it comes to
Sino-American relations. Consider it war by another name, or perhaps, to
bring back a long-retired term, a burning new version of a cold war.

Even before Donald Trump entered the Oval Office, the U.S. military and
other branches of government were already gearing up
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T89447d5f-4eba-4fb5-a27b-017643c25c23/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
for
a long-term quasi-war, involving both growing economic and diplomatic
pressure on China and a buildup of military forces along that country's
periphery. Since his arrival, such initiatives have escalated into Cold
War-style combat
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T6d8ab905-a2db-49e5-a7a7-17e2900f4652/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
by
another name, with his administration committed to defeating China in a
struggle for global economic, technological, and military supremacy.

This includes the president's much-publicized "trade war" with China, aimed
at hobbling that country's future growth; a techno-war designed to prevent
it from overtaking the U.S. in key breakthrough areas of technology; a
diplomatic war intended to isolate Beijing and frustrate its grandiose
plans for global outreach; a cyber war (largely hidden from public
scrutiny); and a range of military measures as well. This may not be war in
the traditional sense of the term, but for leaders on both sides, it has
the feel of one.

*Why China?*

The media and many politicians continue to focus on U.S.-Russian relations,
in large part because of revelations of Moscow's meddling in the 2016
American presidential election and the ongoing Mueller investigation.
Behind the scenes, however, most senior military and foreign policy
officials in Washington view China, not Russia, as the country's principal
adversary. In eastern Ukraine, the Balkans, Syria, cyberspace, and in the
area of nuclear weaponry, Russia does indeed pose a variety of threats to
Washington's goals and desires. Still, as an economically hobbled
petro-state, it lacks the kind of might that would allow it to truly
challenge this country's status as the world's dominant power. China is
another story altogether. With its vast economy, growing technological
prowess, intercontinental "Belt and Road" infrastructure project, and
rapidly modernizing military, an emboldened China could someday match or
even exceed U.S. power on a global scale, an outcome American elites are
determined to prevent at any cost.

Washington's fears of a rising China were on full display in January with
the release of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S.
Intelligence Community, a synthesis
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T0d2c782a-4942-437e-bd82-617d5de8a259/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
of
the views of the Central Intelligence Agency and other members of that
"community." Its conclusion: "We assess that China's leaders will try to
extend the country's global economic, political, and military reach while
using China's military capabilities and overseas infrastructure and energy
investments under the Belt and Road Initiative to diminish U.S. influence."

To counter such efforts, every branch of government is now expected to
mobilize its capabilities to bolster American -- and diminish Chinese --
power. In Pentagon documents, this stance is summed up by the term
"overmatch," which translates asthe eternal preservation of American global
superiority vis-à-vis China (and all other potential rivals). "The United
States must retain overmatch," the administration's National Security
Strategy
<https://default.salsalabs.org/Ta8cb6401-0154-49d2-a8c5-930245f4a9e9/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>insists,
and preserve a "combination of capabilities in sufficient scale to prevent
enemy success," while continuing to "shape the international environment to
protect our interests."

In other words, there can never be parity between the two countries. The
only acceptable status for China is as a distinctly lesser power. To ensure
such an outcome, administration officials insist, the U.S. must take action
on a daily basis to contain or impede its rise.

In previous epochs, as Allison makes clear in his book, this equation -- a
prevailing power seeking to retain its dominant status and a rising power
seeking to overcome its subordinate one -- has almost always resulted in
conventional conflict. In today's world, however, where great-power armed
combat could possibly end in a nuclear exchange and mutual annihilation,
direct military conflict is a distinctly unappealing option for all
parties. Instead, governing elites have developed other means of warfare --
economic, technological, and covert -- to achieve such strategic
objectives. Viewed this way, the United States is already in close to full
combat mode with respect to China.

*Trade War*

When it comes to the economy, the language betrays the reality all too
clearly. The Trump administration's economic struggle with China is
regularly described, openly and without qualification, as a "war." And
there's no doubt that senior White House officials, beginning with the
president and his chief trade representative, Robert Lighthizer
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T87fe2470-5270-4dbe-8d4a-82c9cd3b0841/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>,
see it just that way: as a means of pulverizing the Chinese economy and so
curtailing that country's ability to compete with the United States in all
other measures of power.

Ostensibly, the aim of President Trump's May 2018 decision to impose $60
billion in tariffs on Chinese imports (increased
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T82537153-c5c2-442d-82a2-ce869100fbe1/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
in
September to $200 billion) was to rectify a trade imbalance between the two
countries, while protecting the American economy against what is described
as China's malign behavior. Its trade practices "plainly constitute a grave
threat to the long-term health and prosperity of the United States
economy," as the president put it
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T73f3ac4a-9e55-41a8-a242-1cde4bf5f47c/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
when
announcing the second round of tariffs.

An examination of the demands submitted to Chinese negotiators by the U.S.
trade delegation last May suggests, however, that Washington's primary
intent hasn't been to rectify that trade imbalance but to impede China's
economic growth. Among the stipulations Beijing must acquiesce to before
receiving tariff relief, according to leaked documents
<https://default.salsalabs.org/Tdfd8f5ab-3ab7-48fd-a4bd-a89f0b054c08/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
from
U.S. negotiators that were spread on Chinese social media:

   - halting all government subsidies to advanced manufacturing industries
   in its Made in China 2025 program, an endeavor that covers 10 key economic
   sectors, including aircraft manufacturing, electric cars, robotics,
   computer microchips, and artificial intelligence;
   - accepting American restrictions on investments in sensitive
   technologies without retaliating;
   - opening up its service and agricultural sectors -- areas where Chinese
   firms have an inherent advantage -- to full American competition.

In fact, this should be considered a straightforward declaration of
economic war. Acquiescing to such demands would mean accepting a permanent
subordinate status vis-à-vis the United States in hopes of continuing a
profitable trade relationship with this country. "The list reads like the
terms for a surrender rather than a basis for negotiation," was the way
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T88cac1d4-ba53-4a30-b933-42b73879b426/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
Eswar
Prasad, an economics professor at Cornell University, accurately described
these developments.

*Technological Warfare*

As suggested by America's trade demands, Washington's intent is not only to
hobble China's economy today and tomorrow but for decades to come. This has
led to an intense, far-ranging campaign
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T61b33e07-a9a0-45af-b2cf-89a77b665961/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
to
deprive it of access to advanced technologies and to cripple its leading
technology firms.

Chinese leaders have long realized that, for their country to achieve
economic and military parity with the United States, they must master the
cutting-edge technologies that will dominate the twenty-first-century
global economy, including artificial intelligence (AI), fifth-generation
(5G) telecommunications, electric vehicles, and nanotechnology. Not
surprisingly then, the government has invested in a major way in science
and technology education, subsidized research in pathbreaking fields, and
helped launch promising startups, among other such endeavors -- all in the
very fashion that the Internet and other American computer and aerospace
innovations were originally financed
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T3ac2eebe-d5ac-4b03-ad9e-1157c09ddc80/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
and
encouraged by the Department of Defense.

Chinese companies have also demanded technology transfers when investing in
or forging industrial partnerships with foreign firms, a common practice in
international development. India, to cite a recent example of this
phenomenon, expects
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T0e5b1ab2-d5c2-4288-8baa-95d5c0857b7e/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
that
significant technology transfers from American firms will be one outcome of
its agreed-upon purchases of advanced American weaponry.

In addition, Chinese firms have been accused
<https://default.salsalabs.org/Tbf8fb24b-583a-4ea7-b843-1001f56cdf2f/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
of
stealing American technology through cybertheft, provoking widespread
outrage in this country. Realistically speaking, it's difficult for outside
observers to determine to what degree China's recent technological advances
are the product of commonplace and legitimate investments in science and
technology and to what degree they're due to cyberespionage. Given
Beijing's massive investment
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T54238230-1482-421a-ae90-124d408751df/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
in
science, technology, engineering, and mathematics education at the graduate
and post-graduate level, however, it's safe to assume that most of that
country's advances are the result of domestic efforts.

Certainly, given what's publicly known about Chinese cybertheft activities,
it's reasonable for American officials to apply pressure on Beijing to curb
the practice. However, the Trump administration's drive to blunt that
country's technological progress is also aimed at perfectly legitimate
activities. For example, the White House seeks to ban Beijing's government
subsidies for progress on artificial intelligence at the same time that the
Department of Defense is pouring
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T9d23605f-282f-44a5-8587-b9bcababd262/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
billions
of dollars into AI research at home. The administration is also acting to
block the Chinese acquisition of U.S. technology firms and of exports
<https://default.salsalabs.org/Tc6a54821-2d37-410e-82b1-ddb6150f7fdf/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
of
advanced components and know-how.

In an example of this technology war that's made the headlines
<https://default.salsalabs.org/Taf288199-4d2b-4219-9677-55179231402a/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
lately,
Washington has been actively seeking to sabotage the efforts of Huawei
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T7df86278-5570-40ca-abf1-1119d50acf02/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>,
one of China's most prominent telecom firms, to gain leadership in the
global deployment of 5G wireless communications. Such wireless systems
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T9efb2c35-ace2-496b-841e-3716abdc3a17/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
are
important in part because they will transmit colossal amounts of electronic
data at far faster rates than now conceivable, facilitating the
introduction of self-driving cars, widespread roboticization, and the
universalapplication of AI.

Second only to Apple as the world's supplier of smartphones and a major
producer of telecommunications equipment, Huawei has sought to take the
lead in the race for 5G adaptation around the world. Fearing that this
might give China an enormous advantage in the coming decades, the Trump
administration has tried to prevent that. In what is widely described
as a "tech
Cold War
<https://default.salsalabs.org/Tb69d13f4-8d2c-4b1c-a2a5-695f13094a92/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>,"
it has put enormous pressure
<https://default.salsalabs.org/Tc10e1d4d-8757-44bf-9e7d-1864652ae238/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
on
both its Asian and European allies to bar the company from conducting
business in their countries, even as it sought the arrest in Canada of
Huawei's chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, and her extradition
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T0039caff-3c86-4439-9bf3-e544c485c9b8/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
to
the U.S. on charges of tricking American banks into aiding Iranian firms
(in violation of Washington's sanctions on that country). Other attacks on
Huawei are in the works, including a potential ban
<https://default.salsalabs.org/Te49f8a68-7efc-49bb-b7d5-3db7bf60d46c/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>on
the sales of its products in this country. Such moves are regularly
described as focused on boosting the security of both the United States and
its allies by preventing the Chinese government from using Huawei's telecom
networks to steal military secrets. The real reason -- barely disguised --
is simply to block China from gaining technological parity with the United
States.

*Cyberwarfare*

There would be much to write on this subject, if only it weren't still
hidden in the shadows of the growing conflict between the two countries.
Not surprisingly, however, little information is available on U.S.-Chinese
cyberwarfare. All that can be said with confidence is that an intense war
is now being waged between the two countries in cyberspace. American
officials accuse
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T05cd2578-6aa3-43f3-a499-7fed3669ee6e/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
China
of engaging in a broad-based cyber-assault on this country, involving both
outright cyberespionage to obtain military as well as corporate secrets and
widespread political meddling. "What the Russians are doing pales in
comparison to what China is doing," said
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T32cf6436-0b26-42c0-bb73-0de1281840ae/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
Vice
President Mike Pence last October in a speech at the Hudson Institute,
though -- typically on the subject -- he provided not a shred of evidence
for his claim.

Not disclosed is what this country is doing to combat China in cyberspace.
All that can be known from available information is that this is a
two-sided war in which the U.S. is conducting
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T594b4105-2178-49ed-b76d-06383d3d337e/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
its
own assaults. "­The United States will impose swift and costly consequences
on foreign governments, criminals, and other actors who undertake
significant malicious cyber activities," the 2017 National Security
Strategy affirmed. What form these "consequences" have taken has yet to be
revealed, but there's little doubt that America's cyber warriors have been
active in this domain.

*Diplomatic and Military Coercion*

Completing the picture of America's ongoing war with China are the fierce
pressures being exerted on the diplomatic and military fronts to frustrate
Beijing's geopolitical ambitions. To advance those aspirations, China's
leadership is relying heavily on a much-touted Belt and Road Initiative
<https://default.salsalabs.org/Tcec4e2be-787f-4620-8afd-800a0e06b0e7/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>,
a trillion-dollar plan to help fund and encourage the construction of a
vast new network of road, rail, port, and pipeline infrastructure across
Eurasia and into the Middle East and Africa. By financing -- and, in many
cases, actually building -- such infrastructure, Beijing hopes to bind the
economies of a host of far-flung nations ever closer to its own, while
increasing its political influence across the Eurasian mainland and Africa.
As Beijing's leadership sees it, at least in terms of orienting the
planet's future economics, its role would be similar to that of the
Marshall Plan that cemented U.S. influence in Europe after World War II.

And given exactly that possibility, Washington has begun to actively seek
to undermine the Belt and Road wherever it can -- discouraging allies from
participating, while stirring up unease in countries like Malaysia and
Uganda over the enormous debts
<https://default.salsalabs.org/Te3d9f759-0d58-4d97-a56b-e9bd8c252d78/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
to
China they may end up with and the heavy-handed manner
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T3bc39de7-2545-4504-ad21-d2195e0c63a3/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
in
which that country's firms often carry out such overseas construction
projects. (For example, they typically bring in Chinese laborers to do most
of the work, rather than hiring and training locals.)

"China uses bribes, opaque agreements, and the strategic use of debt to
hold states in Africa captive to Beijing's wishes and demands," National
Security Advisor John Bolton claimed
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T8e20998d-9f58-4cf3-af18-4c53e032811d/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
in
a December speech on U.S. policy on that continent. "Its investment
ventures are riddled with corruption," he added, "and do not meet the same
environmental or ethical standards as U.S. developmental programs." Bolton
promised that the Trump administration would provide a superior alternative
for African nations seeking development funds, but -- and this is something
of a pattern as well -- no such assistance has yet materialized.

In addition to diplomatic pushback, the administration has undertaken a
series of initiatives intended to isolate China militarily and limit its
strategic options. In South Asia, for example, Washington has abandoned its
past position of maintaining rough parity in its relations with India and
Pakistan. In recent years, it's swung sharply
<https://default.salsalabs.org/T2f434066-4f0c-47c8-baee-ebb1dc4f4e91/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
towards
a strategic alliance with New Dehli, attempting to enlist it fully in
America's efforts to contain China and, presumably, in the process
punishing Pakistan for its increasingly enthusiastic role in the Belt and
Road Initiative.

In the Western Pacific, the U.S. has stepped up
<https://default.salsalabs.org/Ta6f28bf6-12e2-4949-a933-a30f4e8ade26/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
its
naval patrols and forged new basing arrangements with local powers -- all
with the aim of confining the Chinese military to areas close to the
mainland. In response, Beijing has sought to escape the grip of American
power by establishing miniature bases on Chinese-claimed islands in the
South China Sea (or even constructing
<https://default.salsalabs.org/Tc0e61ef8-96c9-4efd-949d-3dfad43f279c/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>artificial
islands to house bases there) -- moves widely condemned by the hawks in
Washington.

To demonstrate its ire at the effrontery of Beijing in the Pacific (once
known
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an "American lake"), the White House has ordered an increased pace of
so-called freedom-of-navigation operations (FRONOPs). Navy warships
regularly sail within shooting range
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of
those very island bases, suggesting a U.S. willingness to employ military
force to resist future Chinese moves in the region (and also creating
situations in which a misstep
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could
lead to a military incident that could lead... well, anywhere).

In Washington, the warnings about Chinese military encroachment in the
region are already reaching a fever pitch. For instance, Admiral Philip
Davidson, commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, described
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the
situation there in recent congressional testimony this way: "In short,
China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios
short of war with the United States."

*A Long War of Attrition*

As Admiral Davidson suggests, one possible outcome of the ongoing cold war
with China could be armed conflict of the traditional sort. Such an
encounter, in turn, could escalate to the nuclear level, resulting in
mutual annihilation. A war involving only "conventional" forces would
itself undoubtedly be devastating and lead to widespread suffering, not to
mention the collapse of the global economy.

Even if a shooting war doesn't erupt, however, a long-term geopolitical war
of attrition between the U.S. and China will, in the end, have debilitating
and possibly catastrophic consequences for both sides. Take the trade war,
for example. If that's not resolved soon in a positive manner, continuing
high U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports will severely curb Chinese economic
growth and so weaken
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the
world economy as a whole, punishing every nation on Earth, including this
one. High tariffs will also increase costs for American consumers and
endanger
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the
prosperity and survival of manyfirms that rely on Chinese raw materials and
components.

This new brand of war will also ensure that already sky-high defense
expenditures will continue to rise, diverting funds from vital needs like
education, health, infrastructure, and the environment.  Meanwhile,
preparations for a future war with China have already become the number one
priority at the Pentagon, crowding out all other considerations. "While
we're focused on ongoing operations," acting Secretary of Defense Patrick
Shanahan reportedly told
<https://default.salsalabs.org/Tc3dd2461-909e-43b8-919b-62f2b4d0ff56/1c03f1ce-7dc7-4bf0-8d81-b8cd8cae6b85>
his
senior staff on his first day in office this January, "remember China,
China, China."

Perhaps the greatest victim of this ongoing conflict will be planet Earth
itself and all the creatures, humans included, who inhabit it. As the
world's top two emitters of climate-altering greenhouse gases, the U.S. and
China must work together to halt global warming or all of us are doomed to
a hellish future. With a war under way, even a non-shooting one, the chance
for such collaboration is essentially zero. The only way to save
civilization is for the U.S. and China to declare peace and focus together
on human salvation.

__

*Michael T. Klare* *is the five-college professor emeritus of peace and
world security studies at Hampshire College and a senior visiting fellow at
the Arms Control Association. His most recent book is *The Race for What's
Left*. His next book, *All Hell Breaking Loose: Climate Change, Global
Chaos, and American National Security*, will be published in 2019.*


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