*El buen amigo y gran periodista Roberto identifica algunos retos del 2016.
Le respondo con el llamado a leer los signos de los tiempos con el
pesimismo de la mente y el optimismo del corazón, en el sendero del PODER
PUDIENDO de PODEMOS - ¿o nos quedamos contemplando a las espinas sin
podarlas para que la rosa nos brinde sus efluvios? *

*Malgrait tout, abrazotes por el año nuevo 2016 😊*

Azril

_______________________

*POOR 2016, SO MANY HANDICAPS*

*By Roberto Savio**

San Salvador, Bahamas, December 31, 2015 - At this time, we all wish “ a
very good year”. While the wish is always a positive thing, we should also
realize that we cannot expect too much from the new born year. He is loaded
by so  many handicaps, that we  should have lot of sympathy for him…He is
part of a negative circle that started with the financial crisis of 2008,
and that will probably conclude in 2017, a cathartic year in which
elections in several key countries and other crucial appointments could
open a new cycle. Unless a  republican victory in the American Elections
will anticipate a global crisis of governance faster…

Here is a list of the major handicaps for 2016, which is of course a
personal view: but supported  by many data…

*Handicap 1:  Climate change.*

After Paris conference on climate change, this year will be crucial to
understand in which direction the wind of change is blowing. Of course, the
process of saving our planet at its present level, is planned over a span
going to 2050. Let us briefly recall  that the engagements taken in Paris
are insufficient to reach the goal of not surpassing 2 Centigrade above the
level that prevailed before the Industrial Revolution( we have already used
1 centigrade). As now, the Paris Pact  will at least reach 3.7 Centigrade,
which means, among many things, 850 millions people displaced. In fact,
there is a consensus that we should not  go beyond 1.5 Centigrades, to be
really safe.

Well, we will take just two examples, to show that the threat to the planet
is a very concrete one, and that political subjection to the energy sector
continues. The British Parliament has just approved legislation allowing
use of the shale gas extraction technology , know has hydraulic fracking.
This is also allowed beneath protected sites, including national
parks.British government has announced that they will award new licenses
for shale gas and oil exploration, including national parks.

The other is an interview from Gian Luca Galletti, Italian minister for
environment, back from Paris.He defends his new program of oil extraction
in land and sea, by declaring: “One of the key themes of Paris is the
equitable exploration of natural resources. We live in a country that is
still uses petrol and gas, and I do not see why we should  use energies
from others.”The Prime Minister Renzi has applauded the “green criteria”
with which the new plan of drilling, for  2 billion euro. . Meanwhile in
Gela, Sicily, one of the refining places, child cancer has gone to 159.2
percent, Hodgkin to 72.4, stomach tumor 47.5 percent, versus the national
norma.

According to the International Energy Agency, direct and indirect subsidies
to the fossil industries, coal and oil, amount to  5.3 trillion dollars
dollars per year. The subsidy requested in Paris for introducing green
technologies, world wide, is 100 billion dollars. This data is sufficient
to illustrate the gap between good intentions and vested interests.

If this trend will continue in 2016, it is clear that the Paris climate
agreement swill never reach its goals.

*Handicap 2: ISIS and terrorism *

While everybody keeps focusing on the war to the Caliphate in Siria, it is
time to look more in long term.The war in Siria has become a proxy war by
Saudi Arabia (which  is directly responsible for the diffusion of the
radical islam imposed by ISIS, wahabism), Qatar, United Arab Emirates,
Turkey, Russia, United States, France, Great Britain, and now with support
from Germany and theoretically from the European Union. Now, all muslim
countries worldwide are supposed to join Saudi Arabia.They are all ready to
fight this war to the last syrian, but not to risk any man. As bombing has
never been sufficient to win,  this is a war that in 2016 will go nowhere.
But what we have to start to reflect  is that ISIS is  a local project,
and  is becoming a global one. A Security Council  report  estimates that
25.000 people from 100 countries have joined Al Qaida and ISIS. The number
of foreign fighters went up by 71% in just ten months. And the massacres of
Paris and San Bernardino were perpetuated by local people, who were not
part of the ISIS structure.

The main difference between Al Qaida and ISIS, according About Zeid, from
the Carnegie  Center in Beirut, is that Al Qaida has as its main goal to
fight against Western domination. But ISIS is especially interested to a
depuration of  the muslim world, fighting  other branches of Islam, from
Shia to Sufi to YAZIDI , ismaeliti etc, to eliminate them and oblige  Sunni
to accept a strict wahabist practice, or suffer violence.

It is in that light that ISIS messages to muslim living in the West is
insistent and clear :Take side, or with the West as apostates, or with us
as real Muslim.

The problem is that mistrust of Muslims  the West is increasing. Hate
crimes have tripled in the last month in US, spurred by the irresponsible
Republican presidential candidates. The growing rightwing  xenophobic
european parties, led by demagogues like Salvini in Italy, Geert Wilders in
the Nederland, or Le Pen in France, are subjecting Muslim to harsh times.
It obliges them to define more their allegiances, and this can push young
and marginalized muslim into  the ISIS camp.

Refugees from muslim countries, like Siria, are depicted  as infiltrated by
ISIS.If this trend of radicalization continues, it will become a phenomena
which will survive  ISIS. itself. Over 25.000 people from 100  countries
have joined the ISIS: a 715 increase of foreign fighters in just ten
months. According to the Pew Institute, Islam is now at 1.6 billion people,
but in 2050 will be close to the christians ( 1.8 billions), in 2075 will
have the same consistency, and in 2.100 will be the largest religion in the
world. By the way, is the religion who has the largest number of under 15.

The long terms project of ISIS is a clash of civilization. A continues
polarization, with the West as a clear enemy, is what ISIS legacy could be.
It means to go global, from local.

The year 2016 will be crucial to see if this polarization will increase or
not. Will the West be able to understand the trap in which he is
walking? Anyhow,
our daily life is already under attack. To travel has become an
aggravation. US is now tightening its visa policy for Europeans. Cots of
security are  increasing  by 83 percent in Europe, according to an Interpol
estimate. Fear is seeping more and more in the collective subconscious. If
in 2016 there will be more massacres like Paris and San Bernardino, fear
and polarization will take a trend may be irreversible.

*Handicap 3: Refugees: *

With media covering just events, , the refugee crisis has now passed to a
second plan. Nothing has changed: people die like before, countries have
erected walls and continue to adopt stricter measures, but with winter less
people are ready to risk their life.But let us take a long term view.
Europe, Australia, United States and other rich countries are simply not
culturally prepared to accept two inescapable facts. The first, that the
homogenous, white, christian world that we know, is not sustainable. Is a
law of physics that an empty space attract overflow. In this moment the
crisis is due entirely to irresponsible military actions taken to depose an
unsavory dictator, without any planning for the after. In a short time,
Saddam Hussein and Gheddafi were successfully deposed, leaving their
countries in chaos and misery. The last attempt, Assad, become a proxy war
, with Russia and the Shia ( Iran , Hezbollah), keeping him in place, in
spite of the efforts of Europe and United States.  Only Siria has now four
million refugees and just a fourth of them is trying to make a new life in
Europe.

At the same time, Europe has a significant  demographic decline. According
to the UN, Europe needs at least 2 more millions of additional people to
keep its pension system functioning, and the economy running, and will need
at least 350.000 new immigrants every year, until the population will
stabilize again, around 2080. Of course, there is no political campaign of
education to this reality. The right wing parties present a dream: let us
go back to the time that we were all white, with Christianity as our common
bond, let us defend our identity and our history.

But if we go beyond our present crisis, let us realize that demographic
transformations are staggering. According to the last UN projections, the
world in 2100 will not be 9 billion as thought ( we are now at 7.5
billion), but 11.2 billions. Africa will be then 4.4 billion people, up
from its present  billion. Ethiopia, to make a case, is now 100 million
people: it will l be 243 millions in 2100. Africa will be then 39% of the
world population, almost as much as Asia, and four times the share of
Europe and North America put together. Africa is largely muslim..…

Let us remind that now Europe and US are accepting ( US  symbolically)
refugees, or those who have left their home because of a conflict. That
leaves outside people who are afraid of mortal discrimination, like gays in
Africa, Nigerian girls where Boko Haram bring them in slavery, religious
groups like Christians in the middle east, or rohinyás in Myanmar…and this
excludes economic migrants, or people who have left their home because it
does not feed them, and escape hunger, not war…and  we will have to add the
new category of climate refugees, which does not even exist in the present
debate.

According to the United Nations High Commission for Refuges, in 50 years,
according on how we implement the Paris Agreement on climate change, we
could go with 3  degrees to 250 millions displaced people, and with 4.5 to
1.000 million people. According the International Organization for
Migrations, “ in the last 30 years droughts and inundations have tripled”
and climate changes have created more displaced people than wars. The
security Council has released a report which depicts how more than one
million Syrian farmers, ruined by the drought between 2007 and 2010, took
refuge in unprepared and fragile towns, and their desperation  plaid a key
role in the Arab Spring insurrection against Assad.

So it is time to realize that the West is facing an historical change, with
dramatic consequences in lifestyle, customs, and  daily practices. This
could be achieved by accepting gradually newcomers to the club, in harmony
and coexistence  of the Western values, or by showing them a fist, as
Salvini and Trump do.  The 2016 will be very crucial to see how this will
go, especially after American Elections.

*Handicap 4: Decline of democracy*

It is time to realize that political disaffection is not only increasing
xenophobic and right wing parties   since the economic crisis of 2009, but
also sapping the prestige of democracy as an undisputed modern value. We
have now the Hungarian Prime Minister, who openly advocates an “illiberal
democracy”, and look to Putin as a  model. Poland is following the same
direction, and all over Eastern Europe there is  a clear shift to the
right, marked by pressing request to Nato and United States to enhance
military barriers to Russia. ( And Nato poking Putin paranoia, by offering
Montenegro, with 2.000 soldiers, to join).All those countries have refused
European agreements on receiving  refugees, as well as any other burden
from Brussels ( money of  course is accepted and requested). Putin has set
up an informal alliance with the right wing parties , as a leader in the
defense of identity and religion. He has even given  a 5 million euro loan
to Le Pen.

In time of crisis, people are more interested in their security and work,
than who is in power. Many classical voters for the left, like workers and
unemployed, now vote for the right wing parties, and believe their promises
of going back to the golden past. They are not interested any longer by
ideologies or political visions. They think that right and left does not
exist any more. They are disillusioned with the classical party system, and
they are ready to try anything new and which is not part of the
establishment. This is the reason of Le Pen success in France, of the
disconcerting support for Trump in United States ( and even more puzzling
the success of  Bernie Sanders , a declared socialist, a term which is
close to anathema  in US).

Of course, right wing xenophobic parties are not very useful for
international cooperation and dialogue with others. But the real problem is
that we are in a crisis of  political vision.When ideologies are discarded
as relics, and the following step is to adopt pragmatism as a solution, in
fact you are making of politics a number of ad hoc solutions, without any
final view of the society.  Each action is chosen as the most useful for
that specific issue. That is not pragmatism, is utilitarism, which
downgrade policy to administrative, and this does not attract people’s
participation, especially young people. And the administrative  level of
politics, without any vision,  is prone to corruption, which is clearly
growing in the western democracies.

Fear is strengthening  the right, not the left. Today fear is creeping into
our daily lives, according to different polls. A survey from The World
Value System, found out that today only one  fifth of Americans consider
democracy as a fundamental principle.  The same is happening in Europe,
according to the same survey. In other words, nazism and stalinism are
faded memories. And the Chinese model, where decision can be taken in a
short time, bolstering productivity and action., is becoming popular.

We  are, of course, not yet in the Weimar climate. But we are getting in
place many of the ingredients which brought an obscure demagogue to run
the most advanced country of the time.

It will be important to see  how in this year demagogy will continue its
growth, or will abate. But what would be important is that we all start to
put democracy under observation, not  longer a  value over the fray. It is
under attack, not only from ISIS and terrorism, but from leaders elected by
their citizens, be  Orban or Putin, and whit a phenomenal approval rate. So
it is time we take into account that a growing segment of the population in
the West is finding refuge in the dreams of the past, with political en
economic agendas which are out of reality. Democracy, sadly, is on the wane.

*Handicap 5: The decline  of Europe. *

In 2016 probably Cameron will call a referendum on leaving the European
Union or not.  This is    trap in which the British PM put himself, by
promising to renegotiate Britain permanence in the EU, or  having several
benefits or quitting. It is clear now that with empty hands, he would loose
the referendum ( he is supposed to want to remain). Negotiations with
Europe will go ahed in the first months of the year. Germany considers a
catastrophe if Britain leaves, so it will help Cameron. Whatever the EU
will concede to Britain, will be immediately requested by all East European
countries.This will mark the  end  of european integration. The 2016 could
be the year when  this will happen.

*Handicap 6 : Nationalism in Asia.  *

It is a worrying reality that for the first time since the end of the last
war, the major Asian countries, China, India and Japan, are run at the same
time by nationalist leaders. While obviously different in their reality and
style (nothing like the twins Putin-Erdogan), they are revamping the
glorious past and the humiliations that they did suffer in the World War 2,
to stir citizens to their support.

President Xi has launched “the Chinese dream”,  which is rooted in bringing
back the ancient glories of the Empire of the Middle, and revenge the
humiliations of the european occupation, Japanese occupation, and the
oppium war. Two years ago mobs destroyed Japanese shops and properties,
without initially any police intervention.China has embarked in a plan of
influences to counter United Sates, by financing several grandiose
projects: the creation of a Bank alternative to the World Bank, under
Washington control. On Xi invitation, 45 countries did join the bank, who
will have a total of 200 billion dollars, in spite of Washington
opposition.It is also planning to recreate the ancient “Silk Road”, by
investing over 50 billion dollars. And it is planning  to finance the “twin
Ocean Railroad connection, a planned 5.000 km railway from the Peru coast
to Brasil.

It has given to Venezuela, Ecuador, Argentina, loans for over 80 billion
dollars, sending a message to the  traditional “backyard” of United States:
wane yourself from Washington, I have more resources ( China reserves are
3.8 trillion dollars). It has been intervening heavily in Africa, to the
point that Zimbabwe is considering pegging its currency to the yuan. And it
is expanding its maritime zone  in the sea, by building bases on some small
rocks, which were claimed by several asian countries. China will  increased
its military budget by 7% during  the new five year plan.

Abe, the Japanese PM, has gone in the same direction. It has just increased
the military budget by 7%, and more importantly he has made an
interpretation of the constitution, that allows again the Japanese Defense
Force to act abroad. He defends that change by saying that it is for
limited cases. Yet, is like to give liquors filled chocolates to an ex
alcoholic. Polls show a growing surge of the right and of the nostalgics,
who feel the defeat in the second world war as an humiliation to erase. Abe
has refused to apologize for the violence used against civilians by
Japanese troops in China, and to recognize Japanese responsibilities in the
forcible recruitment of over 60.000 Korean girls to be used as “sex help”,
for the Japanese soldiers.

Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister, is also recalling the glorious
past, tacitly condoning right wing and nationalist acts, and speaking of “
a new indian glory" .In 2050, according the Un projections, India will
overtake China as the largest population  of the world. The difference is
that India has 41% of his population under 18;China by that time will have
only 23% of young people, in a sea of old people, because of its one child
policy.

Modi has projected India at the forefront of the international scene, by
using his leverage in the Paris Conference on climate change. He now speaks
on behalf of the non industrialized country ( China attempt to do that in
Paris went nowhere), and he is also increasing the military budget. He just
bought armament from China for 12 b million dollars, an hefty amount for a
country which needs dramatic injections in its social, educational and
health system, beside of course infrastructures.

In other words, if there is a place where a new world war could coming, is
Asia. And its scale would be really unprecedented. What is worrying is that
ALL asian  countries are increasing their defense budget, How much this
will bring some significant events in 2016, is difficult to predict. But it
would be important to loom at Asia as a place of concern for the world
peace.

*Handicap 7: Decline in Latin America*.

 While this is more of a  regional problem, in an interconnected world
everything  has relevance for everybody. Latin America has been for the
last decade an active international actor, contributing to the world
development. The decline of Chinese imports of raw material, and  the
increase of interest rates from the Federal Reserve in Washington, ( which
will shift investments from Latin America to the US market) are a two piece
prong, that is affecting seriously the region.

Some economists are already talking of a new negative cycle, that could
last for some years. The low prices of commodities is affecting all the
region, from copper in Chile to oil in Venezuela, Ecuador, and agricultural
commodities in Argentina. in Venezuela, Maduro is still ignoring the new
reality, and the World Bank predicts a decline of 10% in 2016. He could
remain in power only solving problems, for which he has no funds.

 The same is happening in Ecuador. Argentina has already changed direction,
and is going back to the neoliberal policies of the past.Brazil is in the
middle of a crisis  for corruption, which is hiding a very difficult
economic situation. The Economic Commission for Latin America has published
an alarmed report, in which it forecast a serious decline. In the report,
it indicates that at the end of 2016 we will have a more clear picture,
once is clear if the Chinese locomotor is in a temporary loss of speed, or
in  a more durable process.

*Handicap 8:  Armament increase.*

 According to the projections of the Swedish Institute for Peace, the 2016
will see increase in armament costs close to 3%. That increase  is the
equivalent of 600 billion dollars, an amount which could have solved the
ambitious goals of the  Millennium Development goals established by the
UN,;the amount requested in Paris by the non industrialized countries to
give them clean technology,( an unresolved problem yet ). But the debate on
reduction of armaments  ignores a stunning reality: the five Permanent
Members of the Security Council of the UN ( in charge  with securing
peace), make  82% of the global arm’s sale. And with China entering
massively into weapons manufacturing, that percentage is bound to grow.

United Nations started to authorize  “humanitarian intervention”, in
Somalia(December 5, 1992 - May 4, 1993). The scope of the american led
invasion was to bring humanitarian aid in a rogue country, where
conflicting militia were starving the population. The balance of that
operation ( with a quick exit of US, after several of his soldiers were
drawn as corpses in the main street of Mogadishu), was a total cost of the
military operations of 900 million dollars.

 The value of the food and other supplies distributed was 90 million
dollars. That proportion has been kept in every case. Except that it is
always much more easy to find resources for military operations, than for
humanitarian ones. The massive wave of refugees for all the local wars in
Africa and Middle East, is a consequence of that priority. Europe has
accepted to give 3 billions dollars to Turkey, and eliminate visas, so to
keep Syrian refugees there. It is now spending for refugees  an amount
which is  not yet quantifiable, but that certainly goes in billion of
dollars. If that money would have been spent for assisting populations in
the conflict zone, certainly the number of refugees pounding on the doors
would have been considerably smaller.

Unfortunately, 2016 is going in that direction. Armaments costs will
increase, while development assistance is being curtailed everywhere. The
budget for aid is now being used to finance the incoming refugees, and
probably to finance the commitments of Paris. Therefore, the amount of aid
reaching poor populations, is decreasing. The last Un Conference for
pledging resources, held on Nov. 10th in NewYork, saw a “ dramatic decline”
in donors contributions, from 560 million dollars in 2014, to 77 million
dollars, ,largely covering 2015. Of course, this is going to increase
economic migrants.

*Handicap 9: increase of inequality *

The Economist itself has been noting” that the rich are becoming richer
and  the richest are getting richer faster, is beyond doubt”. A research by
the University of California found out that the share of  American wealth
held the 0.1 percent of the richest households rose from 7% in 1979, to 22%
in 2012. And  that of the richest 0.01 per cent ( about 16.000 household),
jumped from 2% to 11%. Of course, they do not get money printed especially
for them. They suck the money from the total monetary circulation, which
means that some people are surrendering their wealth. An other study has
documented that since 2008, the american middle class has shrunk by 10
million families.

This is a worldwide trend. In Spain, rich people have increased by 40%
since 2008. In 2014, the number of millionaires did increase worldwide by
920.000 individual. There are now in the world , according the Bank of
Canada 14.6 millions who owns more than million dollars in cash beside the
primary house, cars and different goods. The gap between managers and
employees and  workers is growing yearly, with little protest.  The CEO  of
the 500 Fortune Companies (the most successful) had a median income of 17.5
million dollars, with some of course over 200 millions.

A number of economists, among them from the World Bank and the IMF, have
been warning that inequality has not only social and political
implications, but also economic, as it reduces buying power from the poor,
eliminates small shops and companies, and erodes the middle class, which is
the basis for social stability. The famous book “Capital in the
Twenty-First

Century”, by Thomas Piketty, makes this point central: as wealth
concentrates, democratic societies lose faith in the fairness of
governments, which are seen as allied to the big capital. Le Pen campaign
against “plutocrats” is reminiscent of the language used by Mussolini and
Hitler: all right wing parties denounce bankers as enemies, and that stirs
with those who see their lifestyle decline, or their sons without a job,
why a few are obscenely rich.

What is disconcerting in this unprecedented explosion of inequality (
according Oxfam in 2025 England will have the same level   of the time of
Queen Victoria),  that the banner has been generally taken more by the
right wing parties, than from those on the left. And inequality has not
become a big political issue. If it were not for Sanders, it would be
totally absent in the american elections.

And now, two researchers, the Russian economist Vladimir Gimpelson ad the
American political scientist Daniel Treisman have come up with an
illuminating study. They looked at a collection of survey from 40
countries, both rich and poor. The  conclusion is that people’s guess about
the distribution of incomes and where they  are  is as wrong as it could
be. Those who were relatively poor people tended to depict them as middle
class. In Italy, more than half of the needy though they were at the middle
of the income scales. In France and Sweden, the proportion was more than
one third. In contrast, those who are better off tend to think that they
have not yet made it. In France, Italy and Britain, 40 percent or more of
the people who owned second homes put themselves in the bottom half.

This, in Marxists  terms, means that people have lost a sense of class, and
therefore they do not resent inequality as it was done before. And this
means that the political class does not feel inequality as a crucial
issue.It is not by chance that the term “social justice” has disappeared
from the political debate. But how long this will last?

The 2016 will see this trend to continue. It is difficult for people to
realize how this concentration process is becoming extreme. Let us take two
noble examples, to illustrate it. Mark Zuckeberg, the founder of Facebook,
has announced that he will donate 99% of his shares, valued at 45 billion
dollars, to philanthropy. It is an amount that competes with China project
for its railroad spanning from Beijing to Europe, so is an extreme act  of
philanthropy. But let us keep in mind that the 1% left to him is 450
million dollars: 400 times the lifetime income of a collage graduate.

 And that the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation,a very important
institution,  which is supported by 44 billions, has given away 5 billion
in 2014: this was anyhow less than the 7.4 billion it accumulated thanks to
new contributions, investment income and rising value assets.In other
words, money brings so much money, when  you have plenty of it, that it
will be always there ( unless you waste it…but billionaires usually do not
do..when  Zuckeberg  was in Rome in honeymoon, in the jewish quarter,  he
did not leave any tip to the astonished waiter)

*Handicap  10: your personal commitment.  *

This list of handicaps is highly subjective, and leaves outside several
issues which are very important, like gender, human rights, development
assistance, finance control, migrants, etc. If you have reached this point
of my paper, it means that you  are committed to a  better world, and you
are an unusual reader.  According to a study from Unesco, only 3% of the
world population can read 5.000 words of abstract material, without  giving
up.It also means that you have some commitment probably to issues that I
have left out. It would be the most positive result to this writing,  if
you could make an effort and  think how they will fare in  2016: if the
Newborn  year looks positive for your commitments. The purpose of Othernews
is to stimulate thinking and awareness. Let us this  be the New Year wishes
from the publisher to all of you!

**Italian-Argentine journalist. Co-founder and former
Director General of Inter Press Service (IPS). In recent years he also
founded Other News, a service that
provides "information markets eliminate". Other News. In Spanish:
http://www.other-news.info/noticias/
<http://www.other-news.info/noticias/> In
English: http://www.other-net.info/ <http://www.other-net.info/>*





 Roberto Savio
utopie@...





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